World Bank study reveals high temperatures linked to lower exam scores in Ethiopia

There is a growing understanding of how global warming induced by climate change wreaks havoc in every aspect of vulnerable populations. The crisis also impacts learning outcomes — an association that hasn’t been studied extensively — showed a new report. 

This is especially the case in sub-Saharan Africa, which has suffered the worst impacts of climate change, and where the use of adaptive technologies is limited.

A few of such studies have been conducted in high-income countries, particularly in the US where high temperatures have been demonstrated to have adverse effects on learning outcomes.

Now, a groundbreaking study conducted by the World Bank’s Development Research Group has uncovered a startling correlation between rising temperatures and declining academic performance in Ethiopia, which can therefore be replicated across sub-Saharan Africa.

The research, titled High Temperature and Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Ethiopia, delves into the effects of heat on students’ scores in high-stakes university entrance exams.

The study analysed data from over 2.47 million students who sat for the Ethiopian Higher Education Entrance Certificate Examination from 2003 to 2019. 

“We combined that with data on school-level temperatures over this time period and examined how variation in the number of hot days each school experiences in a given year — compared to that school’s typical number of hot days — impacts students’ performance on the college entrance exam,” said lead researcher Patrick Behrer, economist with the World Bank’s Development Research Group, in an interview with Down To Earth (DTE).

“This approach controls for other drivers of student performance (whether a school is rural or urban) by estimating the effects by only comparing students with other students in the same school in different years,” he explained.

The findings indicated that students exposed to higher temperatures during the school year, particularly on exam days, tend to perform worse than their cooler-climate counterparts.

“The main outcome is the finding that more hot days during a school year reduce the amount that students in Ethiopia learn. Ten additional hot days during a school year (days > 33 degrees Celsius) leads to a 2.28 per cent decline in performance on college entrance exams,” he told DTE. 

Interestingly, the study also highlighted a gender disparity in heat’s impact on performance. Female students’ exam results were less affected by high temperatures. It did not clearly establish the reasons, but a closer examination indicated that “female students tend to have fewer extended absences from school than their male counterparts counterparts, suggesting a higher level of academic commitment”.

The study also suggested that while all students are negatively affected by heat, the impact is greater for simpler subjects. This is attributed to students putting more effort into difficult subjects, which helps mitigate some of the heat’s detrimental effects.

“There is now robust evidence that heat reduces student performance from many countries around the world,” Behrer said, adding:

Our estimates are some of the first from sub-Saharan Africa. Heat reduces student performance by negatively impacting students’ ability to concentrate, it may reduce their attendance, and it has negative effects on their level of effort on difficult tasks. Anyone who has tried to do something difficult on a sweltering hot day should be able to relate to how heat reduces motivation and effort.

“Heat may also reduce teacher effort or attendance in ways that reduce the amount that students learn,” he noted.

A 2022 article by The Guardian noted that extreme heat impairs mental clarity, cognitive function and judgment, increasing the risk of errors.

Behrer said the research is pivotal as it raises concerns about the potential educational setbacks for students in sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change. With the United Nations Environment Programme warning of more extreme weather events and rising sea levels, the implications of this study are far-reaching, calling for urgent action to adapt educational environments to a warming world.

“As climate change increases temperatures around the world one of the most important consequences will be the effects that this has on students and how much they are able to learn,” Behrer said.

“Policymakers should be considering ways to reduce temperatures in classrooms and protect students from high temperatures in learning environments,” he said.

He said there are many options — from installing fans, to painting roofs white, to changing how schools are built to increase ventilation.

“The best option in any given place will depend on the local context. But the overall lesson is clear: Students learn better when they are not exposed to high temperatures in the classroom and policy makers should try to develop solutions that can protect students from these extreme temperatures,” he told DTE.