War in Sudan enters its breadbasket, threatens to worsen hunger, malnutrition

The armed conflict in Sudan that has plunged the Africa country into a severe humanitarian crisis since it began 10 months ago, has now entered its southeastern regions, which is known as the nation’s breadbasket. 

Southeastern Sudan contributes over half of Sudan’s total cereal production and is the main area for national grain storage. 

This development threatens to exacerbate hunger and malnutrition in a country which already has very poor development indices. 

Sudan is facing one of the worst food crises in the world, with almost a third of the population in need of emergency food aid.

About 17.7 million people face high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in  the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Phase 3 or above (crisis or worse) between October 2023 and February 2024.  This includes around 4.9 million people (or 10 per cent of the population) who are in IPC Phase 4 (emergency).

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces erupted in April 2023 and led to widespread displacement. 

Since the conflict began, the rate of acute malnutrition and hunger has increased in Sudan. The war is also disrupting trade and agricultural activities in “the breadbasket” and is very likely to worsen the existing food insecurity crisis, warned the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) earlier this month.

Millet, wheat cultivation disrupted

Attacks in mid-December on Wad Madani and surrounding towns in Al Gezira that expanded into parts of Sennar, White Nile and South Kordofan in January have interrupted the main harvesting season of sorghum and other millets, worsening the already below-average expectations for the national cereal harvest.

The war has affected Al Gezira Scheme, one of the largest irrigation projects in the world. Many people, including farmers and employees, have left the scheme, posing a significant threat to the project’s operations, according to a farmer quoted in a media report.

This has interrupted the cultivation of winter wheat in the Gezira irrigation scheme area, which typically accounts for 40-50 per cent of total wheat production, and damaged critical irrigation infrastructure.

“Attacks in mid-December interrupted the main season harvesting and cultivation of winter wheat in highly productive regions of Sudan. FEWS NET was already projecting a below-average national harvest, and food availability is now threatened even further,” said Emily Turano, Senior Food Security Analyst, FEWS NET. 

Worsening import deficits

Sudan typically imports 80-85 per cent of its wheat needs each year. A decline in domestic production will exacerbate the country’s already significant import imbalances.

Sudan’s Ministry of Agriculture stated that because of supply chain disruptions and declining government revenue, official wheat imports in 2023 only made up a third of the projected demand and only half of what is normally imported.

So, the total food availability for the 2023-24 consumption year is expected to be significantly below average. 

In 2024, wheat availability will still be much below demand, even after taking into consideration irregular cross-border movements, somewhat lower demand and changing consumption patterns.

Parts of Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Khartoum and Al-Gezira are anticipated to be the areas most severely impacted by the consequent market shortages of cereal supplies.

High food prices

Food inflation will also result from extension of the conflict. According to FEWS NET, the price of staple foods will probably be high and may continue to rise in the coming months. 

The lean season, when the harvest from the previous year has been exhausted and food prices are at their highest, is expected to come as early as March. “If nothing changes between now and then, we can expect deepening hunger in El Geneina, Omdurman and other areas where heavy fighting is occurring,” said Turano.

This conflict affects Sudan, South Sudan and Chad and has resulted in the greatest displacement crisis in history. 

An estimated 7.76 million people have been displaced inside and outside of Sudan. Of these, 6.14 million people have been displaced within Sudan, according to the most recent estimates by the International Organization for Migration (IOM). As of February 7, 2024, the number of internally displaced persons in Sudan had grown 88 times, from 69,615 on April 21, 2023, to over 6 million.  

“We need to be able to provide support to families in Sudan to avoid the world’s largest displacement crisis turning into a hunger catastrophe as we approach the lean season” said Michael Dunford, World Food Programme’s regional director for Eastern Africa.

The 297 days of the conflict has also disrupted health facilities run by humanitarian agencies, with one in every 11 health facilities not functioning according to United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). 

The significant funding shortfall of around 96.5 per cent to address Sudan’s humanitarian needs represents a significant obstacle. As of February 12, 2024, just $94.5 million of the $2.7 billion needed had been received, according to OCHA.

“Unless this conflict is resolved, unfettered access is granted to humanitarian agencies, and funding is received, this crisis will only worsen,” alerted Dunford.