Restricting global temperature rise to 1.5°C could help India lower drought, river flooding, biodiversity loss risk: Study

India could avoid drought exposure to humans and agricultural land by 70 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, if global temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius than 3°C above the pre-industrial era, according to a new study.

Similarly, limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 3°C could avoid 80 per cent of the increased human exposure to heat stress.

India is also likely to face an increased risk of river flooding, biodiversity loss and crop yield declines with every additional degree of warming, the study published in the Journal Climate Change stated.

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These results “provide additional confirmation of the rapid escalation of climate change risks with global warming found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2022 report, which identifies how the risk of severe consequences increases with every additional increment of global warming,” Rachel Warren, of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, said in a statement.

Warren and her team documented in eight papers how an additional degree of warming from 1.5ºC to 4ºC above pre-industrial levels could affect India and five other countries, such as Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana.

Their findings show that 90 per cent of the Himalayan region could witness drought lasting over a year if warming touches 3°C above the preindustrial era. 

As for river flooding in India, 92 per cent of river basins could be affected if warming exceeds 1.5°C. But flood frequency is projected to decline in parts of the Himalayas, the paper highlighted.

The economic impacts due to river flooding are estimated to cost India $898 million at 1.5°C and $5,891 million at 3°C warming.

If warming is restricted to 1.5°C, India could avoid approximately 87 per cent or 84 per cent of the additional total direct and indirect economic losses from river flooding that could occur with 3°C warming.

Keeping the temperature rise to below 1.5°C could avoid over half of the reductions in crop yield that would have otherwise occurred at 3°C of warming, the paper estimated.

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Also, limiting warming to 1.5°C allows an estimated 58 per cent of the country to act as a safe refuge for plants, compared with 17 per cent at 3°C, the study showed.

Similarly, 40 per cent of India’s land could act as a safe refuge for vertebrates at 1.5°C compared to 10 per cent at 3°C.

“Many of the areas that could act as plant refugia in India are already in agricultural use, but there are still important refugia remaining in the Western Ghats and the Himalayas,” read the study.

As for the rest of the countries, limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 3°C avoids  65 per cent of increased human exposure to drought in Brazil, 66 per cent in China, 20 per cent in Egypt, 60 per cent in Ethiopia and 80 per cent in Ghana. 

“Although these studies focus on the risks to six countries only, other nations are projected to experience similar issues. Therefore, greater emphasis needs to be placed on both climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation to avoid large increases in risk to both human and natural systems,” Jeff Price, also of the Tyndall Centre at UEA and coauthor of the study, said in a statement.