As the first month of monsoon 2024 draws to a close, India is grappling with an 18 per cent rainfall deficit, leaving millions of farmers across the country in a precarious situation. The anticipated rains, essential for sowing Kharif crops, have fallen short, exacerbating the impact of an ongoing heatwave that has scorched large swathes of north, west, central and east India.
It also indicates a concerning trend: A dry June is becoming a persistent problem for Indian farmers.
The monsoon, which arrived two days early in Kerala and six days early in Northeast India this year, initially raised hopes among farmers. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) soon revised its forecast, predicting a lower-than-expected rainfall for June.
This revision has left farmers in a bind, particularly the 61 per cent who rely on rain-fed agriculture. June and July are the most important Kharif months.
Growing a crop like paddy, the main Kharif crop, requires fields to be continuously flooded up to 10 centimetres deep for two weeks during the transplantation stage, necessitating precise weather information. The lack of rainfall and high temperatures have made this nearly impossible.
West Bengal, Odisha, Punjab, Haryana and Andhra Pradesh, which contribute the most to India’s paddy production, have experienced scorching temperatures over the last two months.
For nearly 40 days straight, the country’s breadbaskets have experienced temperatures of 48 degrees Celsius or higher, Peter Dynes, managing director of nonprofit MEER, posted on X (formerly Twitter). “A major crop failure would have devastating effects on this region and beyond,” he wrote.
There are currently nine states with “large deficient” rainfall and twelve with “deficient” rainfall, according to IMD.
Sowing operations typically begin around this time in Odisha, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. But persisting dry conditions have forced farmers to halt sowing preparations.
Even in Punjab, known for its good irrigation efficiency, the hot and dry weather has disrupted paddy planting.
According to a Punjab agriculture department official, there is a visible effect on the sowing of paddy nurseries. “We do not have official data yet, but preliminary reports indicate that farmers are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Labour shortage also compounded the issue as agricultural workers had gone home for the elections,” the official stated.
Punjab has set a paddy production target of 3.2 million hectares (ha) for this season.
Punjab Agriculture University has advised farmers to delay the cultivation of long-duration rice varieties, suggesting the transplantation of shorter-duration varieties after June 20. PR varieties are short-duration crops and require a cultivation time of 93-123 days.
However, many farmers are likely to resume transplanting only after June 25, hoping for improved yields, the official said.
“Even last year, we found that farmers who planted paddy after June 25 had a higher yield than those who sowed earlier,” he said.
No sowing data from Centre
Ironically, the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has not released crop and state wise area coverage report yet, further adding to the issue. The National Food Security Mission, which updates its crop-wise data every Friday, has not released its data for several weeks now.
The last update by the agriculture ministry on June 7 stated that 7.51 million ha were sown (5.42 million ha for sugarcane and 878,000 ha for cotton). But the website doesn’t give data for other crops, especially paddy.
Chronically dry June
A dry June is gradually becoming a recurring issue for farmers. Farmers have deliberately altered their crop sowing patterns and avoided June in recent years.
Down To Earth previously analysed IMD data for 30 years, from 1988 to 2018, covering 676 of India’s 730 districts in 28 states and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir and discovered that 420 districts in the country (62 per cent of the ones covered by the data) experienced a decrease in rainfall in June.
A total of 210 districts (31 per cent of the districts covered in the data) also reported an increase in the number of days with no rainfall.
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