Hottest year 2023 is a sign of more natural disasters in future

The year 2023 has become the hottest year on record, surpassing 2016 as the hottest year in history, showed data from several organisations. The average temperature increase in 2023 is 1.54 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period, according to the Berkeley Earth Institute, 1.48°C according to Europe’s Copernicus Service Climate Change, 1.45°C according to the World Meteorological Organization, and 1.37°C and 1.34°C according to National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

El Nino (a climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean) has resulted in higher-than-average temperatures over the last few decades, but scientists believe the increase in temperature in 2023 was not caused by it, as the phenomenon occurred in the last week of July. The trend of rising average temperatures began in January. June was the world’s hottest month, while July 6 was the hottest day ever.

Scientists predict that 2024 may be even hotter than 2023 due to El Nino, which lasts 10 to 12 months. As it began at the end of July 2023, it may extend until May or June 2024.

El Nino’s effect on the temperature increase in 2023 is very small, the current warming is the result of continuous emission of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane.

With the unexpected rise in temperature in 2023, almost every country in the world experienced extreme natural disasters. In July 2023, the United States (US) in the west, European countries to China and Japan in the east were severely scorched by heatwaves.

Temperatures crossed 50°C in many parts of the world. On July 16, the temperature in Death Valley, California, reached 53.5°C, while on July 17, it reached 52.5°C in Sunbao, China.

Temperature rise not only raises the temperature and frequency of heatwaves, but it also increases the frequency and intensity of other natural disasters such as drought, wildfires, floods, strong winds, sea storms, and so on. Each fraction of a degree of temperature rise is significant.  A one-degree increase in average temperature multiplies the frequency of extreme precipitation events by seven, heatwaves by five, and wildfires by several.

The rise in temperature has resulted in more frequent heatwaves, wildfires, and an increase in sea surface water temperature. As oceans absorb extra heat from the atmosphere, all the world’s oceans were warmer in 2023 than in any other previous year. As temperatures rise, so does the sea level, increasing the risk of coastal erosion and flooding.

Scientists have periodically warned governments around the world about rising temperatures. James Hansen, a meteorologist at NASA, warned the world in the 1980s that the global temperature would become much warmer with the increasing emission of greenhouse gases. He raised this issue in the US Senate in 1988, which was rejected.

The fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued in 2014 warned that all countries in the world will face natural disasters such as extreme heatwaves, forest fires, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and some others due to the increase in temperature. Fearing the alarming warnings of this report, all countries signed the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 to avoid natural disasters caused by rising temperatures.

According to this agreement, by 2050, the average temperature of the earth will be limited to 1.5°C above the temperature during the pre-industrial revolution period by rapidly reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.

Unfortunately, in the last 8 years, most of the countries in the world (especially those that emit more greenhouse gases) have not made any effort to do so. As a result, the earth’s average temperature has been reduced by only 0.02°C over the eight years from 2015 to 2023, compared to the 1.5°C target.

Since 1992, all countries and their leaders have been aware that rising emissions of greenhouse gases increase the average temperature of the earth. At a 1992 conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, it was agreed that developed countries should start reducing carbon emissions earlier than other countries to control temperature rise and will provide financial assistance and new technologies to developing countries for the damage caused by natural disasters.

In 1997, a conference held in the city of Kyoto, Japan, set specific targets for the reduction of carbon emissions for developed countries. In both conferences, although developed countries made promises to reduce carbon emissions, none of them did so or gave financial aid to the developing countries as promised.

At the 15th Conference of Parties (COP15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, developed countries pledged $100 billion annually to help developing and poor countries cope with climate change. According to a 2023 report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, from $38 billion in 2013-21, financing reached $89.6 billion by 2021.

Instead of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as agreed in 2015, emissions have actually increased. This has made 2023 the hottest year on record, breaking all the previous records for temperature increases.

Since 1995, the COP has been held annually to prevent natural disasters that are becoming more common as temperatures rise. Every year, many promises are made at this conference, but most of them are illusory, and few are kept. If we look at the agreements of the last three COPs (26, 27 and 28), we can easily see how these conferences performed and which countries would have changed them for their own benefit when making the agreements. 

At the COP26, 90 countries agreed to cut methane gas emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 to combat global warming, but China, the Russian Federation, and India did not sign the agreement. These three countries release 35 per cent of the total methane gases into the environment. The second issue at this conference was to phase out the use of coal for power generation as soon as possible.

Only 45 out of 190 countries signed the agreement to phase out coal. China, the US and India, which today rank first, second, and third in power generation from coal, respectively, did not sign this agreement either. On the last day of the conference, India and China insisted on using the word ‘phase-down’ coal instead of ‘phase-out’ in the final draft, diluting the agreement.

There was no serious discussion at COP27 to control the rise in temperature, while the US, China, and many countries in Europe and Africa were suffering from severe drought in 2022. Only the issue of the loss and damage fund that has been hanging over the past three decades is resolved: Developed countries, which have historically released large amounts of greenhouse gases into the environment, will provide financial assistance to poor and developing countries to compensate for the losses caused by natural disasters.

The COP28 was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, in 2023, a year when global temperatures rose by the day.  Given these circumstances, developing countries expected COP28 to make tough decisions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Instead of imposing restrictions on the production of energy from fossil fuels, which emit large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions, it was decided to transition solely to renewable resources, which are lethal to all living things.

According to a report of the World Economic Forum, the emission of greenhouse gases is continuously increasing by 1.5 per cent per year due to which the environment is warming rapidly. It was supposed to decrease by 7 per cent every year from 2019 to 2030.

All the countries agreed on the operationalisation of the loss and damage fund on the first day of COP28. Unfortunately, the fund that has been collected for this work is only $792 million. This amount can cover only 0.2 per cent of the total loss. The US, which has released the largest amount of greenhouse gases into the environment, has contributed only $17.5 million to this fund.

Now we must consider that, even if the increase in 2023 is temporary, natural disasters can cause so much damage in just one year. Limiting emissions and increasing average temperatures is therefore crucial. About 45 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2050 are needed to stay at 1.5°C. 

Given the enormous increase in temperature in 2023, if the earth and all living things (plants, animals, and humans) are to be saved, all world leaders should address climate change conferences to control temperature increases. The promises and agreements made at these conferences should not be falsified. It is the duty of the developed countries to fulfil the promises made to the developing countries to help them and to compensate them for their losses. 

Gurinder Kaur is Former Professor, Department of Geography, Punjabi University, Patiala

Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth