Heat, water stress can cause up to 14 per cent food production decline globally by 2050; to exacerbate food insecurity

Heat and water stress can lead to 6-14 per cent global food production decline by 2050, correspondingly increasing the number of people with severe food insecurity by up to 1.36 billion compared to 2020, researchers have established in new research. 

Due to this, regions like China and ASEAN countries can become food importers from being net food exporters by 2050. 

The report Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity published June 22, 2024 in the journal Scientific Reports of the science weekly Nature, showed a decreasing trend of food production as a percentage reduction in 2050 from 2020 for different climate change scenarios. 

A decrease in agricultural output causes a reduction in global food production that, in turn, increases the number of people with severe food insecurity. 

In India, in the worst-case scenario of climate change, food production was projected to fall by 16.1 per cent in 2050 as a result of both water and heat stress. In China, it would fall by 22.4 per cent and in the United States by 12.6 per cent. 

In Africa, food production was projected to decline by 8.2-11.8 per cent, 14.7 per cent for Australia and 19.4 per cent for some parts of Central America.

Globally, the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, relative to 2020, can increase between 556 million and 1.36 billion. 

Already, nearly 282 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 59 countries in 2023, with extreme weather being the second-most significant factor driving the food crisis, according to the 2024 Global Report on Food Crisis released in April. 

In fact, for four consecutive years, the proportion of people facing acute food insecurity has remained persistently high at almost 22 per cent of those assessed, significantly exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels.

Weather extremes were the main driver for 18 countries, with over 72 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity because of such extreme weather events.

The month of May ended up being the warmest May on record globally for land and ocean surfaces combined, following the trend of the last 11 months, all of which broke monthly temperature records since the pre-industrial period. In fact, June is set to continue this streak of record-breaking temperatures; if it does, the month would have broken its temperature records two years in a row.

In terms of prices and trade flows (exports and imports), the results of the research showed substantial increases in food prices overall, especially, for the most extreme warming scenario and in regions with high water stress. 

“Our results show an increased flow of trade in agricultural commodities from low to high water stress countries and regions, given (in part) by the relative regional food price changes,” said the research.