Ethiopian meteorologists warn of heavy rainfall impact on health, agriculture

The Ethiopian Meteorology Institute (EMI) has predicted above-normal rainfall in the upcoming season (Kiremt), mainly over central and south Tigray, Afar, East Amhara, northern Somali and eastern portions of the country.

The institute has urged concerned authorities to stay vigilant in case of heavy flooding and disruption in sectors like agriculture, healthcare, water supply and animal pasture, and mitigate the impacts. It has also indicated that unprecedented volume of rains are being recorded in Ethiopia over the last decade.

The experts of the institute made the announcement May 18, 2024 during the National Climate Outlook Forum for Kiremt (NCOF-Kiremt 2024), which normally covers the season spanning June to September, in Adama city.

Western Tigray, west Amhara, Benishagulgumuz, west Oromiya, Gambella and southwestern regions of Ethiopia will mostly receive above-normal rainfall, the experts predicted, while the central and southwestern portions of the country will receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will create favourable conditions for malaria transmission, especially over the southern Afar and southwest Ethiopia regions, said Desalegn Tarekegn, a weather forecaster working with EMI. This will particularly be the case during the end of the rainy season from October to November, he added. Water-borne diseases like cholera may become a concern during July-August due to the extreme weather condition, Tatekegn noted. Dengue fever outbreak will affect people in the eastern half of the country, the institute warned.

Health challenges related to heat are also expected over Afar, Southern Somali and South Ethiopia regions, while the rest of Somali, Afar, Southern Oromia, border of western Amhara, Gambela, south and southwest Ethiopia and the highlands will experience partial heat-stress, he projected.

Sintayehu Tewabe, another weather forecaster at EMI, said the heavy rains will result in floods, water logging, soil erosion and landslides during July and August. He added:

Other impacts include delayed farm operations due to muddy crop field condition, possibility of weed infestation, high chance of crop pests and diseases, high likelihood of washing away fertiliser and pesticides, difficulties on harvesting early maturing Belg season’ crops. The moisture can also favour the breeding of desert locusts.

Elsabet Temsge, one of the speakers at the expert forum, pointed out that heavy rains may lead to flash flood, riverine flood, water reservoir flood in Ethiopia and as well as landslide events during the upcoming rainy seasons. 

This may cause damage to irrigation infrastructures, destroy lives and properties and also lead to displacement in flood-prone areas, she added. The citizens must follow early warning and remain vigilant to minimise the impact. 

‘Be prepared’

Mitigation efforts in the agriculture sector, the experts recommended, require early distribution of agricultural input, proper land and water management, selection of excess moisture-tolerant crop varieties, performing intensive water harvest activities, building drainage structures to take away excess water and regular visit to the crop fields.

Measures including integrated surveillance, water and sanitation interventions, community awareness programme, treatment and oral cholera vaccination, supply of safe water as well as campaigns for washing hands with soap and strengthening WASH facilities are expected to be addressed, they added. 

Being aware of the flood risk in the area of residence is crucial to prepare for the impacts before these hazards affect the socio-economic activities of the country, the experts suggested.

Further, water reservoirs and dams should be monitored closely, irrigation infrastructure should be secured from run-off and maintenance of sewerage and drainage in urban areas should be taken up beforehand, they highlighted. 

EMI Director-General Fetene Teshome, on the occasion, indicated that the expected above-normal rainfall was due to La Nina and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). 

The rains are expected to benefit the south and southeastern portions of the country in August and September, the experts observed.

Other factors such as the surging of the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) that are breaching the average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean as well as the weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies can contribute to the above-normal precipitation predicted in Ethiopia, according to Teshome.

Moreover, a transition from El Nino to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral from April to June 2024 (85 per cent chance), with the odds of La Nina developing during June to August 2024 (60 per cent chance), El Nino-3.4 (+0.34°C) and IOD (+0.22°C) may also be a reason behind the predicted conditions, the EMI experts said.  

Motuma Mekasa, adviser to the Minister of Water and Energy, stated that the impact of climate is an issue that affects all sections of the society, governmental and non-governmental institutions and international organisations.

In order to improve the quality of metrological services, strengthening coordination among service providers and climate information users is vital, he stressed. Effective implementation of the National Framework on Climate Service by all stakeholders and forging collaboration of all the federal and regional actors are imperative, Mekasa said.

Source: Ethiopian Meteorology Institute

The Deputy Director General also pointed out that a La Nina episode is expected to continue during Belg 2025 season.  Hence, below-normal rainfall is likely across Somali, Guji and Borena zones, Southern Ethiopia and Sidama regions during that period. 

The meteorological stations in Ethiopia have registered unprecedented record-breaking rise in rainfall volume over the last rain season and throughout the previous decade, Bekalu Tamene, weather prediction expert at EMI, noted. The daily maximum temperature exceeded the threshold of 35.3-43.3°C in most parts of lowlands and border areas, he added. 

Extreme weather condition during Belg

April 2024 was the wettest month in Ethiopia, with most of the country recording rainfall much above the average volume. 

Dominantly, above-normal rainfall was observed across south and southeastern areas, where Belg was the main rainy season benefiting the areas, the EMI experts shared. Over the central, southwestern and eastern regions, Belg is the second rainy season, they added.

The southwest, northwest and northern parts of the country received normal to above-normal rainfall, with daily maximum temperature in many places, particularly the lowland areas, the institute noted.

EMI also indicated that it has been monitoring climatic features of the country and generating weather and climate forecasts that can help benefit from better seasonal climate while also minimising its negative consequences, through proper communication and dissemination of forecasts for various socio-economic sectors.