Multiple factors worked in tandem to minimise damage in Sundarbans; but next time may be different, warn experts
Cyclone Remal missed the Indian coast by a whisker and landed close to a small forested Bangladeshi island named ‘Mathar Dwip’ around midnight on May 26, southwest of the port city of Mongla in the Khulna division, India Meteorological Department (IMD) sources have confirmed to this reporter.
The sources added that Canning, the West Bengal city where the word ‘cyclone’ was coined by Englishman Henry Piddington in 1848, was hardly 70 kilometres from the cyclone’s eye when it landed.
Nine people have died as a result of the cyclone so far. Close to 10 million were evacuated to rescue shelters on either side of the international border, including nearly 1.5 million in West Bengal.
Strong winds and rainfall continued till May 27 evening as the cyclone system slowed down after landfall, according to IMD sources.
The Centre and West Bengal government kept a keen eye on the development, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding a review meeting and promising all help to affected people.
Bengal’s political leaders, cutting across party lines, took a pause from campaigning for the ongoing election and swept into relief action; perhaps trying to milk political dividends from Remal.
The point of landfall and timing caused Remal’s impact to be much less on the Indian Sundarbans, compared to damage caused by cyclones Amphan or Yaas.
The Indian Sundarbans witnessed heavy rain and strong winds since May 26 morning, which continued till May 27 evening.
Barely 20 km from India
IMD officials stated that Remal made landfall at a location with latitude-long 21.75 and 89.2, based on their radar-based analysis, coupled with on-ground monitoring shared by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. The coordinates show the landfall happened at a point just north of Mathar Dwip island within the Khulna division of Bangladesh.
The island, near where the landfall began late on May 26 evening and lasted till early May 27 morning, is just 20 kilometres from the Indian Sundarbans, as per a crow fly estimate.
The hourly bulletin number 9, issued by IMD around 3 am on May 27, pointed out that “Remal … crossed the Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal close to southwest of Mongla near Latitude 21.75°N and Longitude 89.2°E between 2230 hrs IST of 26th May to 0030 hrs IST of 27th May 2024 as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speed of 110 to 120 Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph”.
The communiqué further pointed out that just after the landfall the cyclone was positioned “115 km east of Sagar Islands (West Bengal), … 70 km southeast of Canning (West Bengal) and 80 km south-southwest of Mongla (Bangladesh)”.
“The cyclone came closer to the Indian border compared to initial estimates but still landed within Bangladesh. A few weather websites mentioned the landfall to be within India. But those are mainly based on model analysis. Our radar-based analysis, coupled with on-ground data as found from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, pointed the exact location as mentioned in our report,” confirmed a senior expert from IMD’s cyclone division.
A map showing the exact landfall point of Remal
However, the expert admitted that Remal’s coverage area, a diameter of about 350 km, included a large part of West Bengal, particularly the state’s coast. “West Bengal actually received more rainfall though the wind was stronger on the Bangladesh side,” added the expert.
“The cyclone impact is still there, with high rainfall and strong winds affecting the region, and is expected to continue till today evening as the system has slowed down after landfall,” explained a senior IMD official from Alipore in Kolkata at May 27 noon.
Riding lucky
Within the Indian Sundarbans, the Gosaba block was closest to the point of landfall. Kumirmari, the last inhabited island closest to the Bangladesh landfall point, suffered most within the block due to the cyclonic impact, state government officials confirmed.
“Gosaba is definitely most affected within the Sundarbans. And Kumirmari island was the most affected within Gosaba. We were really worried about an embankment on the Raimangal river adjoining Kumirmari. But luckily, it held on,” pointed out a senior irrigation official.
“Though we did not have any major embankment breach, there were several cases of overtopping of water in the Sundarbans with 67 overtopping in Gosaba alone,” said the official.
Emergency patchwork — using machinery and manpower — in weak embankment areas just prior to the cyclonic strike paid dividends, the official claimed.
Overtopping was also reported from various places in Sagar, Namkhana, Patharpratima, Kultali, Sandeshkhali and Hingalgunge.
“We have been barely saved as the Raimangal embankment did not breach as feared. Stronger wind, coupled with the landfall coinciding more with the high tide, could have been disastrous,” said Debasish Mandal, the upo pradhan (deputy head) of Kumirmari Panchayat, sharing that many were evacuated to flood shelters before the disaster.
“We have been largely saved. But the unusual part was the long duration of the cyclone, both on May 26 and most of May 27,” said Sanjib Pradhan, a key member of Gorumara Panchayat, one of the most vulnerable islands of the Sundarbans.
It is a complaint that was reiterated by Sankar Ari of Bali island in Gosaba block.
“Multiple factors worked in tandem to save the Indian Sundarbans from greater disaster this time. First, the landfall point was slightly away from the Indian border. Second, the midnight landfall meant the cyclone impact peaked at a time when the low tide started. Moreover, the timing of the landfall — about three days after the full moon — meant that the tide was anyways at low ebb,” explained Subhas Acharya, a member of the Sundarbans Development Board, reminding that the region may not always be this lucky.
“We need a comprehensive master plan, and its appropriate prompt execution, to ensure long-term sustainability of the Sundarbans. We have had several discussions but need the plan and its implementation at the earliest to save millions and the unparalleled biodiversity,” pointed out Tuhin Ghosh, a professor of oceanography at Kolkata’s Jadavpur University and a globally acknowledged Sundarbans expert.
A senior irrigation official agreed: “Yes, it is a fact that multiple factors worked in favour of the Indian Sundarbans during Remal. Just compare it with Aila; which, despite having similar wind speed, caused many times more damage in comparison as the landfall was within the Indian Sundarbans and overlapped with the high tide.”
Kolkata escaped the worst of Remal as rainfall and strong winds largely started late on May 26 evening and continued in spells through night and the larger part of May 27.
The metropolis received close to 260 mm of rain within 24 hours, according to IMD sources. Close to 500 pumps operated to drain out water from the city. Kolkata’s northern fringes, were hit by the strongest of Remal’s winds — 91 km per hour — as recorded in Dumdum.
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