What was finally decided in the Global Stocktake?

About a decade ago, at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2015, the world decided to take stock of global progress made in meeting Paris Agreement goals every five years, starting 2023. This was the objective of the Global Stocktake text released at COP28 held in Dubai in December 2023. The framing of the final text took two weeks of work, but it lacks crucial nuances.

After the first version of the Global Stocktake (GST) text released on December 1, 2023 earned multiple viewpoints, country Parties were directed to hold “informal-informals” between themselves to iron out differences and present a comprehensive set of suggestions. The second iteration on December 5 contained multiple “no-text” options. In essence, this means if there is no agreement reached on a particular paragraph, it is omitted completely. 

Critical paragraphs such as number 35 on the fossil fuel phaseout were “no-text” options. India said outright that they would prefer it to be taken out completely, as did Saudi Arabia on behalf of the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC). The EU welcomed the paragraph. 

After receiving many divergent views, the co-chairs provided a third version on December 8, which was passed ahead to the Presidency along with suggested edits from negotiators. 

The fourth iteration released on December 11 by the Presidency caused ripples. The language presented the phaseout of fossil fuels as a menu of options that countries “could” choose from, bringing criticism from the Alliance of Small Island States, Germany and the European Union.

Media reports, including from news outlet Politico, were quick to specifically hold developing countries including India and China responsible for the poor language. However, many developed countries did not reference the fossil fuel paragraph throughout negotiations. Those who did focused on fossil fuel subsidies and coal heavily. The outcry on the penultimate day seemed to be a tactic to hide behind Global South countries and preserve the right for countries like the United States to continue producing oil. 

Following widespread opposition, the COP28 Presidency held discussions and in the early hours of December 13, the final version of the Global Stocktake text was uploaded. 

It “calls on” Parties to contribute to global efforts to reduce emissions. The fact that it no longer presents fossil fuel reduction as an option is an improvement. It has also managed to include for the first time ever a mention of fossil fuels and their role in mitigation efforts. 

Having said that, there is explicit mention of coal with no such mention of oil and gas throughout the text. In the earlier version, the wording on “phaseout of fossil fuels and their consumption and production” was clear. 

The final version has replaced that with “transitioning away”. The subsequent paragraph also notes the role of “transitional fuels” which references natural gas. Coupled with no reference to production, it presents a loophole for countries to continue producing the fuel.

The demand of G77 and China and Least Developed Countries to recognise the growing needs of developing countries and that doubling adaptation finance is only the first step was included. However, while the first four iterations of the text referenced it within the Adaptation section, the last and final version saw the paragraph moved to the Finance section – a long standing developed country demand. 

Developed countries say that including all references to finance in the finance section makes most sense. At the same time, they want to include references to mitigation in all sections as a cross-cutting theme. It seems that they are only comfortable with cross cutting sections when such references do not allude to the responsibility of the Global North, as finance would. 

Specific references to NDC achievement being dependent on access to finance from developed countries were omitted, following demands from the US. Nevertheless, there is a paragraph acknowledging the need for more concessional, non-debt climate finance, which is key for the Global South.

Overall, the Global Stocktake has had some key highlights and other areas with evident gaps. A big one is on the operationalisation of equity in the fossil fuels transition. For example, what are the different timelines for developed and developing countries? Who still has the right to use fossil fuels for development and who has already taken up much more than their fair share of the carbon budget? Without answering these questions, it will be difficult to put a fair and just energy transition into practice.