New GST text urges global Net Zero by 2050 with cuts to fossil fuels; proposes rapid phasedown of coal

The new text on global stocktake (GST), consensus on which is key to a successful outcome the Dubai climate meet, has proposed to reduce the production and consumption of all fossil fuels in a manner so that Net Zero is achieved by 2050. It thus apparently erases the differentiation between historical emitters and developing economies including India.

The ‘Draft text by the President’, released at 4.30 PM Dubai time, asked for “… rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation”.

The text mentioned “ …Reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050” on all fossil fuels, mainly indicating oil and gas.

“This (differentiation) will be in no way acceptable to India and China,” pointed out an analyst.

Incidentally, the proposition conflicts with the target timeline of India and China’s Net Zero — 2070 and 2060 respectively. The United States and United Kingdom have announced their aim to reach Net Zero by 2050.

Experts pointed out that the same timeline of Net Zero for all countries, as proposed, wipes out the differentiation between developed countries — with a historical responsibility of creating emissions — and developing economies like China and India.

This is not in resonance with the concept of equity and common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) as enshrined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

“The 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) Presidency has been clear from the beginning about our ambitions. This text reflects those ambitions and is a huge step forward. Now it is in the hands of the Parties, who we trust to do what is best for humanity and the planet,” claimed a COP28 spokesperson shifting the onus to the Parties.

“The Minister is not going to make any comment on the development now as the meeting is still going on,” said a representative of the Indian delegation.

What the text says

The text, in its operative part, proposes eight steps under point number 39 to keep the global temperature rise within the ambit of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“… (The text) … recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in GHG emissions and calls upon Parties to take actions that could include, inter alia:

1.Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;

2. Rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation;

3. Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems, utilizing zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;

4. Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, including such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production, so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.

5. Reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science;

6. Accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO2 emissions, including, in particular, methane emissions globally by 2030;

7. Accelerating emissions reductions from road transport through a range of pathways, including development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low emission vehicles;

8. Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible;

Differentiation lost

“The latest GST text on fossil fuels represents a significant regression from previous versions. Astonishingly, it has dropped explicit language on phasing out fossil fuels, opting instead for a vague commitment to ‘reduce both consumption and production’ by 2050. This is a clear indication of the fossil fuel industry’s lobbying power, influencing global policies to favour prolonged fossil fuel use,” alleged Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International to this reporter.

Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns in 350.org, spoke in a huddle organised by Climate Action Network South Asia post the publication of the latest draft. “The COP28 latest draft text resembles a disjointed wish list, far from the stringent measures required to limit warming to 1.5°C,” he said.

“The updated GST text furthers the differential treatment meted to the developing south and the developed world. While the draft says fossil fuels have to be only ‘reduced’ in a just, orderly and equitable manner, coal has to be ‘rapidly’ phased down and there need to be limitations on new and unabated coal power generation,” explained Vaibhav Chaturvedi, a climate analyst and fellow of think-tank of CEEW. He stated that the language is going to be heavily debated by the Global South in the final stages of the negotiation.