Global tally tripled since 2006, non-violent forms more effective, study reveals

The number of protests around the world has more than tripled due to political decisions, injustice, inequality, climate change, and other factors, a new study showed. The analysis published in the journal Nature stated that non-violent protests have a greater impact than violent ones and are more effective at changing political regimes, among other outcomes.

The study noted that the farmers’ protest in India during 2020 was the largest among those studied between 2006 and 2020, with an estimated 250 million participants.

Other major protests include the Arab Spring and Occupy movements of the 2010s and the global Black Lives Matter protests in 2020.

The study also highlighted that protests have been increasing globally, including thousands reported since the Israel-Hamas conflict. Farmer protests have erupted in countries such as Germany, Belgium, and India over new regulations.

Helen Pearson, the author of the article, said that large protests often overshadow smaller ones and that unified goals might achieve more success than diffuse demands. The study also found that police repression tends to garner more support for protesters.

A global study stated that protests are increasingly seen as a way to express disagreement or a lack of faith in institutions.

Pearson noted that research shows that 300 protests and revolutionary campaigns between 1900 and 2006 aimed to dethrone national leaders. Non-violent protests, such as the Philippines’ People Power Revolution, were successful in ousting dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986.

Quoting US political scientist Erica Chenoweth, Pearson said that every movement that mobilised at least 3.5 per cent of a population was successful. She cautioned:

This led to what’s known as the 3.5 per cent rule — that protests require this level of participation to ensure change. But the figure can be misleading. A much larger number of people are probably supporting a successful revolution even if they aren’t visibly protesting.

The study found that successful movements have large numbers of supporters, as mass participation enables political leverage.

Pearson cited the example of the Take Back Parliament campaign in 2010, which aimed at electoral reform. It saw success due to cohesive demands, and the same organisational form with coordinated slogans and demands influenced the UK referendum in 2011.

This contrasts with Occupy London in 2011, where protests involved multiple demands to address inequality, financial regulation, climate change, and oppression, lacking cohesion.

Little is known about non-violent but disruptive protest methods, such as those used by Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion, which include throwing soup on paintings, glueing themselves to government or oil company offices, and blocking traffic. However, evidence points to some impact. According to multiple surveys by Social Change Lab, involving opinions from 6,000 people, disruptive methods can stimulate negative opinions on an issue.

Pearson noted that non-violent protests combined with repression by authorities become a potent blend, as such actions often prompt media coverage sympathetic to the protesters’ cause. Conversely, violent protests are often labelled as riots and disorder by the media.

A recent example Pearson noted is the repression tactic used in April when the president of Columbia University in New York City authorised police action to arrest campus protesters. Many of these protesters were participating in non-violent demonstrations against Israel for its military action in Gaza. The incident reportedly sparked an escalation in media coverage, resulting in a wave of student protests across parts of the United States and abroad.